Stuart Rothenberg: Odds Are Against Lugar in Bid for Seventh Term

In an article last month, Stuart Rothenberg, who is not known to get carried away in his analysis of political events, lays out the case why Richard Mourdock will be able to win over Richard Lugar in the 2012 GOP primary.

Lugar has not stood up for conservative principles and "been dismissive of the tea party," in Rothenberg's words, which accounts for why 3/4 of Indiana's GOP county chairman want him out of the Senate.

Last year, a similar situation was occurring in Indiana, after Dan Coats got into the race. Coats, while more to the right than Lugar, is no movement conservative, but because those opposed to Coats split their votes between several candidates -- especially Marlin Stutzman and John Hostettler -- Coats won the nomination.

Rothenberg believes that Mourdock is a strong enough candidate -- having already been elected to statewide office -- that conservative and tea party groups will unite behind him, not splinter their votes. If that's the case, Lugar will indeed have a very tough time gaining a victory.

Introduction

My name is Josh Gosser. While I live in Kansas, not Indiana, I think being able to replace Senator Dick Lugar with a solid conservative such as State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is a golden opportunity. Because of that, I started this site to cover news around what is sure to be hotly-contested Republican Primary.