In an article last month, Stuart Rothenberg, who is not known to get carried away in his analysis of political events, lays out the case why Richard Mourdock will be able to win over Richard Lugar in the 2012 GOP primary.
Lugar has not stood up for conservative principles and "been dismissive of the tea party," in Rothenberg's words, which accounts for why 3/4 of Indiana's GOP county chairman want him out of the Senate.
Last year, a similar situation was occurring in Indiana, after Dan Coats got into the race. Coats, while more to the right than Lugar, is no movement conservative, but because those opposed to Coats split their votes between several candidates -- especially Marlin Stutzman and John Hostettler -- Coats won the nomination.
Rothenberg believes that Mourdock is a strong enough candidate -- having already been elected to statewide office -- that conservative and tea party groups will unite behind him, not splinter their votes. If that's the case, Lugar will indeed have a very tough time gaining a victory.
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